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CREDIT SUPPLY: NAB Green Sr Unsec Issue: We See FV Around MS+65-70bp Area

CREDIT SUPPLY

National Australia (NAB: Aa2/AA-/AA-) is issuing EUR green debt; we see fair value around MS+65-70bp area.

  • NAB is issuing EUR benchmark 5.5Y green senior unsecured debt with IPT at MS+95bp area. Expected ratings are: Aa2/AA-.
  • 3Q24 results were 15-Aug and appeared mixed with headlines broadly in line but indications that asset quality continues to decline. The equity is a little higher since, indicating the news was, perhaps, less bad than feared.
  • Westpac tends to trade wide of NAB (ignoring the WSTP 0.875%) which leaves the WSTP 3.799% at a similar workout as a quandary here. If we use the NAB 1.375% and assume 10bp p.a. term premium, we see a fair value around MS+65-70bp area. This does leave our FV wide of that WSTP 3.799% but it simply appears too rich relative to even its own peers, we feel.

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