MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, December 10

MNI BRIEF: China Nov Exports Slows, Imports Slide

MNI BRIEF: China Crude Oil Imports Accelerate In November

CHINA NOV EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +8.9% Y/Y: CUSTOMS

MNI: CHINA YTD EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY90.3 Bln via OMO Tuesday

MNI: GERMAN NOV CPI +2.2 % Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CORE CPI +0.1% M/M, +3% Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CPI +0.3% M/M, +2.4% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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CROSS ASSET: More Stable Start for Currencies, But Vol Rally Persists

CROSS ASSET
  • Currency markets are starting Friday trade in probably the most muted fashion so far this week. While the JPY is firmer (again), gains are marginal, with USD/JPY around 50 pips off overnight highs and 70 pips off the NY Thursday high.
  • The USD Index is modestly softer, but comfortably inside yesterday's ranges and sticking closely to the 200-dma, which again proves its gravitational pull (USD Index has traded either side of the 200-dma in 9 of the past 12 sessions). 
  • Short-end vols are once again well bid. One-week contracts capture a plethora of risks next week - namely the Fed/BoE/BoJ and a continuation of the US earnings cycle - aiding USD/JPY one-week implied to top 15 points today for the first time since late April and only the second time this year. 
  • Equities look for a much steadier open across both Europe and the US, but the Eurostoxx future remains in close proximity to yesterday's lows, and critically still below the key support of 4846/48, the break of which helped trigger that sharp bout of risk-off yesterday. ECB inflation expectations survey, US June PCE Price Index data and the final UMich are the calendar highlights. 
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