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Crude Backwardation Holding Steady After Recent Softening


The decline in crude time spread has paused today after seeing a steady fall since 20 October. The WTI front 1-2 month spread yesterday fell into contango for the first time since early July amid weak prompt demand, record US output and recovering Cushing stocks.

  • The prompt Brent spread is maintaining a small backwardation although Jan24-Feb24 has fallen from a high of over 1.3$/bbl on 20 Oct to reach a low of 0.08$/bbl earlier this week.
  • Longer dated spread are following the weaker trend at the front of the curve and in the futures market with concerns for demand in China, US and Europe. The Brent Jun24-Dec24 spread has fallen through the August low to the lowest since 20 July.
  • The front month futures are today seeing some support having dropped through technical support levels earlier this week but is currently heading for a net decline on the week of over 4$/bbl.
    • Brent JAN 24 up 0.8% at 80.69$/bbl
    • WTI DEC 23 up 0.8% at 76.36$/bbl
    • WTI-Brent down -0.01$/bbl at -4.3$/bbl
    • Brent JAN 24-FEB 24 up 0.03$/bbl at 0.2$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 24-DEC 24 down -0.01$/bbl at 1.77$/bbl
    • WTI DEC 23-JAN 24 down -0.03$/bbl at -0.04$/bbl
    • WTI JAN 24-FEB 24 unchanged at 0.18$/bbl
    • WTI DEC 23-DEC 24 up 0.07$/bbl at 3.06$/bbl

Source: Bloomberg

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