Crude Edges Higher After Improved China Activity Data

Crude futures are edging higher today boosted by slightly better than expected factory output and retail sales in China, although the property sector remains weak. Upside moves have been limited despite upward revisions to both OPEC and IEA global demand growth forecasts.

• Brent JAN 24 up 0.3% at 82.7$/bbl
• WTI DEC 23 up 0.2% at 78.45$/bbl
• Gasoil DEC 23 down -1% at 816.25$/mt
• WTI-Brent down -0.03$/bbl at -4.32$/bbl
• Brent yesterday rallied to a high of just below 84$/bbl following weaker US CPI data which could help ease the risk of further Fed tightening and led to a weaker US dollar. Crude prices fell back later in the day with global demand growth still a concern while the IEA global supply forecast from was revised up by 200kbpd due to higher growth from the US and Brazil. The OPEC monthly report earlier in the week suggested robust global growth trends and healthy market fundamentals.
• China’s refining run rates fell 3% on the September record to 15.12mbpd on softer margins and muted demand but volumes are still up about 9% y/y, according to Bloomberg. Apparent oil demand fell 2.4% in October amid a weaker recovery in air passenger transport.
  • Brent JAN 24-FEB 24 up 0.01$/bbl at 0.27$/bbl
  • Brent JUN 24-DEC 24 up 0.03$/bbl at 2.1$/bbl
• Near term crude time spreads are relatively unchanged but longer term spreads are ticking slightly higher after the curve backwardation softened since mid last month.
• Gasoline cracks tracked crude in reversing earlier gains on the day yesterday amid demand concern and building inventories. The EIA will today release two week’s worth of US petroleum data after the delayed release last week. API data last night showed a small crude and gasoline build and small distillates draw.
  • US gasoline crack down -0.2$/bbl at 14.94$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack down -0.3$/bbl at 40.54$/bbl