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Crude Extends Decline on Demand Concerns and Drop in China Exports

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Brent crude falls to the lowest since 6 October as Middle East supply disruption fears have eased and as demand concerns have returned to focus. The downside pressure outweighs the ongoing tight supplies following the Saudi and Russia commitment to output cuts this year.

    • Brent JAN 24 down -1.1% at 84.22$/bbl
    • WTI DEC 23 down -1.1% at 79.92$/bbl
    • Gasoil NOV 23 down -0.9% at 878.75$/mt
    • WTI-Brent up 0.01$/bbl at -4.53$/bbl
  • Demand concerns driven by speculation that the US Fed hasn’t finished tightening have combined with concern for China demand amid weaker economic and export data in October.
  • China’s oil product exports including gasoline and diesel fell to the lowest in four months in October driven by a lack of export quotas although were up 16.1% on last year. China crude imports rose 13.52% in October y/y and up 3.6% on the month.
    • Brent JAN 24-FEB 24 down -0.01$/bbl at 0.38$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 24-DEC 24 down -0.06$/bbl at 2.19$/bbl
  • Crude time spreads are softer again today following the flat price lower with both prompt and the Jun24-Dec24 spreads steadily falling from a peak on Oct 20. The prompt 1-2 month time spread is today trading at the lowest since August with Jan-Feb down from 1.31$/bbl on Oct 20 to a low of 0.35$/bbl today.
  • Gasoline cracks are maintaining the slow recovery since mid October with some recent demand support. The US crack is up to the highest since late September. Diesel cracks are again slightly softer amid the wider market concern for global demand growth.
    • US gasoline crack up 0.1$/bbl at 13.19$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down -0.7$/bbl at 42.5$/bbl
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Brent crude falls to the lowest since 6 October as Middle East supply disruption fears have eased and as demand concerns have returned to focus. The downside pressure outweighs the ongoing tight supplies following the Saudi and Russia commitment to output cuts this year.

    • Brent JAN 24 down -1.1% at 84.22$/bbl
    • WTI DEC 23 down -1.1% at 79.92$/bbl
    • Gasoil NOV 23 down -0.9% at 878.75$/mt
    • WTI-Brent up 0.01$/bbl at -4.53$/bbl
  • Demand concerns driven by speculation that the US Fed hasn’t finished tightening have combined with concern for China demand amid weaker economic and export data in October.
  • China’s oil product exports including gasoline and diesel fell to the lowest in four months in October driven by a lack of export quotas although were up 16.1% on last year. China crude imports rose 13.52% in October y/y and up 3.6% on the month.
    • Brent JAN 24-FEB 24 down -0.01$/bbl at 0.38$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 24-DEC 24 down -0.06$/bbl at 2.19$/bbl
  • Crude time spreads are softer again today following the flat price lower with both prompt and the Jun24-Dec24 spreads steadily falling from a peak on Oct 20. The prompt 1-2 month time spread is today trading at the lowest since August with Jan-Feb down from 1.31$/bbl on Oct 20 to a low of 0.35$/bbl today.
  • Gasoline cracks are maintaining the slow recovery since mid October with some recent demand support. The US crack is up to the highest since late September. Diesel cracks are again slightly softer amid the wider market concern for global demand growth.
    • US gasoline crack up 0.1$/bbl at 13.19$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down -0.7$/bbl at 42.5$/bbl