Crude Moves Higher on Russia Supply Fears

Crude is trading in the middle of the recent 87$/bbl to 97$/bbl range with focus on the FOMC meeting and EIA data due later today. Crude pushing higher in reaction to the ‘partial’ mobilization announcement by Putin and concerns for the impact of future crude and product supplies.

• Brent NOV 22 up 1.2% at 91.68$/bbl
• WTI NOV 22 up 1.2% at 84.92$/bbl
• Gasoil OCT 22 up 2% at 996.25$/mt
• WTI-Brent down -0.1$/bbl at -6.75$/bbl
• Economic growth risks continue to weigh on oil markets with future oil demand potentially impacted by central back tightening. The Federal Reserve are expected to raise rates by 75bp at the meeting later today with other central bank decisions also due this week.
• Supply risks are supporting crude despite the demand concerns. Saudi Aramco yesterday said a rebound in economic activity would use up the limit spare capacity due to underinvestment in production.
  • Brent NOV 22-DEC 22 down -0.09$/bbl at 1.13$/bbl
  • Brent DEC 22-DEC 23 up 0.47$/bbl at 10.64$/bbl
• Time spreads are following crude higher on the risks to Russia supplies and refinery margins are still slightly down with concerns for product demand. API data last night showed crude and product builds possibly suggesting further weakness in implied demand.
  • US 321 crack down -1.3$/bbl at 29.59$/bbl
  • US gasoline crack up 0.2$/bbl at 16.7$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack down -1.5$/bbl at 55.33$/bbl