Crude Range Trading Ahead Of US CPI Data

Crude has been range trading during the APAC session as markets wait for July US CPI data out later but has held onto most of Wednesday’s gains. WTI is down 0.1% to $84.30/bbl and has held above $84. Brent is 0.2% lower at $87.42 after a low of $87.29. The USD index is flat.

• Brent is up 16% since the start of July and prices have broken above the previous 2023 high in April. There are signs supply is tightening with OPEC+ cutting output, US stocks declining and building tensions in the Black Sea. Futures contracts are signalling tighter supply too.
• Demand concerns persist though, especially from China, but potential LNG shortages from planned strike action in Australia heading into the northern hemisphere winter could increase demand for oil (see MNI’s Australian Strike Risk Pushing Gas Prices Higher, Inflation Risk).
• OPEC publishes its monthly report later today with the IEA’s due tomorrow.
• The focus later is on July US CPI which is expected to rise to 3.3% y/y from 3% with core down 0.1pp to 4.7% (see MNI’s US CPI preview here). The Fed’s Daly, Bostic and Harker also speak.