Crude Rebounds Despite EIA Supply/Demand Revisions

Oil prices rose around a percent on Tuesday despite falling earlier with the general pullback in risk, stronger dollar (USD index +0.5%), and data showing China’s oil imports falling to a 6-month low. WTI rose 1.1% to $82.84/bbl and has started the APAC session down slightly to $82.72 Brent rose 0.9% to $86.08.

• WTI broke below $80 briefly during the European session to a low of $79.90 but rebounded from there to a high of $83.08. Resistance is at $83.59, 7 November 2022 high. Brent’s low was $83.32 but then it recovered to reach a high of $86.34. $86.73 is the initial resistance followed by $90.
• Saudi reaffirmed its commitment to oil price stability and may extend output cuts if need be. Tensions in the Black Sea have also supported prices this week and Ukraine’s Zelensky stated that they will pick targets if Russia blocks ports has added to this.
• The US EIA revised up its US crude production forecast to a record of 12.8mbd this year and 13.1mbd in 2024 boosted by higher well productivity and crude prices, according to Bloomberg. 2022 output was 11.9mbd. The EIA expects global output to increase 1.7mbd to 103mbd in 2024 with over 70% of the rise coming from non-OPEC countries.
• On the demand side, the EIA is projecting lower US demand for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel.
• Bloomberg is reporting API data showing a US inventory build of 4.1mn barrels in the latest week after the huge 15.4mn drawdown, according to people familiar with the data. Gasoline stocks fell 413k and distillate -2.1mn.