Crude Resumes Decline Amid Bearish Sentiment

Front month Brent has fallen to the lowest since Nov 17 amid bearish market sentiment assisted by USD strength. The weakness reflects the market disappointment with the lack of clarity on future supply following voluntary OPEC cuts announced last week.

• Brent FEB 24 down -0.9% at 78.18$/bbl
• WTI JAN 24 down -0.8% at 73.46$/bbl
• Gasoil DEC 23 down -3% at 782.25$/mt
• WTI-Brent up 0.04$/bbl at -4.52$/bbl
• Disruption to shipping from the Middle East remains an upside risk after Houthi rebels targeted three commercial shipping vessels in the Red Sea on Sunday.
• There are doubts over whether the US will pause sanctions relief on Venezuela in the coming days after the President failed to release American prisoners by the November 30 deadline.
• Kazakhstan’s daily oil production has recovered over the weekend with the resumption of loadings from Black Sea Ports after storm disruption. Oil shipments at CPC resumed on Friday from two single point moorings, while a damaged third SPM has been taken out of service.
  • Brent FEB 24-APR 24 down -0.05$/bbl at 0.06$/bbl
  • Brent JUN 24-DEC 24 down -0.17$/bbl at 1.51$/bbl
• The crude curve is still mostly in backwardation although the Jun24-Dec24 spreads are trading well below the highs seen in September and October. The WTI prompt spread is however holding onto a narrow contango reflecting concern for an oversupplied market despite the output cuts.
• Diesel and gasoline crack spreads followed crude market lower late last week with weak demand weighing on diesel and gasoline upside limited by steady supplies.
  • US gasoline crack down 0$/bbl at 14.89$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack up 0.1$/bbl at 37.81$/bbl