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Crude Skews Steady After Bullish Move in Late June

OIL OPTIONS

The near term crude options skews have turned slightly more bearish again after briefly touching into positive territory earlier this week. Futures remain in a bullish trend supported by expectations of tighter supply with added geopolitical and hurricane risks.

  • The second month Brent 25 delta call-put skew is today at -0.5% after rising to the most bullish since April 19 at +0.26% on July 1. The WTI put skew is also at -0.6% today after reaching 0.24% earlier this week.
  • The Dec24 call-put skews have also widened slightly after testing the smallest bearish skew since mid April. The Brent Dec24 skew is down from -2.3% on July 1 to -2.8% while the WTI skew is today at -2.1%. Uncertain China growth and risks that the US Fed easing will be delayed further could weigh on future fuel demand.
  • Crude second month implied volatility has drifted back lower in recent days but still above the lowest since 2019 seen in mid June. Brent second month at the month volatility is at 22.4% and WTI at 23.6%.
  • Aggregate crude traded volumes are slightly above normal with Brent at 1.23m yesterday and WTI at 1.00m. Brent options volumes continues to show higher call volumes than puts with Brent volumes at 198k yesterday and WTI at 147k.
    • Brent SEP 24 up 0.3% at 86.46$/bbl
    • WTI AUG 24 up 0.2% at 83.01$/bbl


Source: Bloomberg

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