Crude Stable Ahead of Updated IEA Oil Report

Crude oil pulled back late yesterday after seeing a rally up to the highs seen earlier this year with tighter supplies weighed against economic concerns. Crude fell in the second the second half of the NY session assisted by a stronger US dollar after slightly softer US CPI data.

• Brent OCT 23 down -0.2% at 86.25$/bbl
• WTI SEP 23 down -0.1% at 82.71$/bbl
• Gasoil SEP 23 down -0.4% at 913.75$/mt
• WTI-Brent down -0.06$/bbl at -4.11$/bbl
• The market still has concern for economic growth and demand in US and China although OPEC supply reductions and potential China stimulus measures have driven a strong rally this month since the start of July.
• Global markets are expecting a supply deficit of more than 2mbpd in Q3 according to the OPEC MOMR yesterday. OPEC kept world oil demand growth forecast steady at 2.4m b/d for this year and at 2.2m b/d for 2024. Non-OPEC liquid supply growth was revised upwards slightly from July by 100k b/d to 1.5m b/d. The updated IEA oil market report is due for release later today.
  • Brent OCT 23-NOV 23 up 0.04$/bbl at 0.6$/bbl
  • Brent DEC 23-DEC 24 down -0.05$/bbl at 4.93$/bbl
• Time spreads followed the decline late yesterday after near term spreads had spiked higher in recent days on the increasing supply risks amid Black Sea tensions. The prompt Brent spread reached the highest since March while the prompt WTI spread rose to the highest since November.
• Diesel and gasoline crack spreads held steady yesterday after gains seen earlier in the week with support from a further decline in US inventories and small recovery in implied demand.
  • US gasoline crack up 0.2$/bbl at 39.4$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack down -0.3$/bbl at 49.33$/bbl