Crude Stable Amid Thin Asia Trading Volumes

Crude is holding stable this morning amid thin overnight trading due to holidays in many Asia-Pacific countries including China and India.

• The last quarter of the year is widely expected to show a deficit with supply tightness from OPEC+ cuts leading to the drawdown in global inventories. Wider economic concerns and potential for more bearish demand due to future central bank policy is limiting upside moves although demand in China may see a boost this week during the holiday period.
  • Brent DEC 23 up 0.5% at 92.67$/bbl
  • WTI NOV 23 up 0.6% at 91.32$/bbl
  • Gasoil OCT 23 down -0.3% at 998.75$/mt
  • WTI-Brent up 1.19$/bbl at -3.34$/bbl
• The market will be looking for future market indications from the Adipec summit in Abu Dhabi from 2-5 Oct this week with scheduled speakers including UAE energy minster and OPEC secretary general. The next OPEC+ JMMC monitoring committee meeting also takes place on Wednesday this week.
• Tight supply is reflected in the strong curve backwardation with the prompt spread still up at around 1.8$/bbl and Dec23-Dec24 currently at 9.8$/bbl. The front month WTI-Brent spread is trading around -3.35$/bbl having narrowed during September driven by declining Cushing stocks.
  • Brent DEC 23-JAN 24 unchanged at 1.84$/bbl
  • Brent DEC 23-DEC 24 up 0.1$/bbl at 9.9$/bbl
• Diesel cracks are holding onto gains from late last week after suggestions of near zero diesel export from Russia in October following the fuel export ban. Gasoline cracks continue to trend lower on weak demand and building stocks after the end of the peak summer season.
  • US gasoline crack down -0.1$/bbl at 9.74$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack up 0.3$/bbl at 47.77$/bbl