Crude Steady As Strong US Dollar Offsets Middle East Tensions

Crude futures are holding steady with economic concerns and a stronger US dollar offsetting Middle East risks as global oil supply appears to remain unaffected despite Red Sea tanker diversions. The ECB has indicated that it may be too soon to ease policy given geopolitical uncertainties and sticky inflation.

• Brent MAR 24 down -0.1% at 78.08$/bbl
• WTI FEB 24 down -0.5% at 72.34$/bbl
• Gasoil FEB 24 up 1% at 786.75$/mt
• WTI-Brent up 0.09$/bbl at -5.62$/bbl
• The US Department of Transportation yesterday issued an alert advising merchant vessels to avoid the Southern Red Sea until further notice. The notice comes after a missile attack from Houthi rebels on a US merchant vessel and an attempted strike towards a Navy destroyer in the Red Sea.
• Clean tanker transits through the Bab al-Mandab strait are down 39% since the start of 2024 compared to 2023, with dirty tanker transits down 12%, according to Vortexa data.
  • Brent MAR 24-APR 24 up 0.02$/bbl at 0.36$/bbl
  • Brent JUN 24-DEC 24 unchanged at 1.76$/bbl
• The WTI prompt time spread is holding steady in contango suggesting ample near term supplies while the Jun24-Dec24 spread remains rangebound amid expectation of softer global demand growth in 2024 weighing on prices.
• US gasoline and diesel crack spreads resumed the recent trend higher after a slight correction lower on Friday driven by US refinery outages and severe cold weather in the US this week. Support also comes from an increase in US gasoline demand last week according to GasBuddy data and reports that some Russian gasoline exports could be redirected to the domestic market following the Norsi refinery unit halt.
  • US gasoline crack up 1.2$/bbl at 17.83$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack up 1$/bbl at 40.51$/bbl