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Crude Ticks Up From Lowest Level Since Jan

OIL

Crude is edging higher after yesterday falling to the lowest since late January. The market fell on the expectation of weaker oil demand due central bank tightening and due to increasing lockdowns from China’s Covid Zero policy.

    • Brent NOV 22 up 0.7% at 88.6$/bbl
    • WTI OCT 22 up 0.9% at 82.64$/bbl
    • Gasoil SEP 22 down -0.7% at 1091.5$/mt
    • WTI-Brent down -0.06$/bbl at -6.29$/bbl
  • Concern for Russian supply failed to support the market. Russian barrels could start to struggle to find buyers due to the implementation of the EU ban and after Putin confirmed they would not supply to countries implementing an oil price cap.
  • EIA yesterday raised their global oil demand forecast due to gas to oil fuel switching while also cutting the forecast for US supply. They forecast a shrinking supply deficit into Q4 22.
    • Brent NOV 22-DEC 22 up 0.05$/bbl at 0.84$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 22-DEC 23 up 0.44$/bbl at 8.21$/bbl
  • Time spreads are also picking up after ending lower in volatile trading yesterday. The downward moves were more muted than outright crude with continued support from potential supply risks and OPEC underproduction.
    • US 321 crack down 0$/bbl at 32.81$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack up 0.2$/bbl at 15.2$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack up 0.4$/bbl at 68.21$/bbl
  • Gasoline and diesel crack spreads are edging higher this morning before the updated EIA data is release later today. API data last night showed an unexpected build in crude and distillates with the expectation for draws in all products in the EIA data.

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