Crude Trading Near Range Lows with Focus on Global Demand

Brent crude is trading back up slightly after falling towards the recent range lows down to $81.35/bbl earlier today. Bearish sentiment around demand outlooks from the US and China continue to provide downside to combine with strong non-OPEC supply and mixed OPEC+ member compliance with pledged cuts.

• Brent MAY 24 down -0.3% at 81.86$/bbl
• WTI APR 24 down -0.4% at 77.7$/bbl
• Gasoil MAR 24 up 0.2% at 828.75$/mt
• WTI-Brent down -0.07$/bbl at -4.64$/bbl
• Tighter supply due to the OPEC+ cuts and geopolitical tensions continue to add support along with a weaker US dollar over the last week ahead of the US CPI data tomorrow.
• The OPEC+ alliance pumped 41.21mbpd of oil in February, unchanged in the month. Several members such as Iraq and Kazakhstan continued exceeding their quotas according to Platts.
• Iran's oil exports have also reached their highest levels since 2018 according to Iran’s oil minister.
• Israel has threated to invade the city of Rafah if the ceasefire talks fail which US president Biden considers would represent a “red line.” Biden expressed hope that an agreement may still be reached.
  • Brent MAY 24-JUN 24 down -0.02$/bbl at 0.55$/bbl
  • Brent JUN 24-DEC 24 down -0.09$/bbl at 3.41$/bbl
• Time spreads have eased from the highs seen in early March with the prompt spread today falling to the lowest since Feb 27 but backwardation remains strong following the rally during Jan and Feb.
• Diesel and gasoline crack spreads are holding steady amid demand uncertainty and recovering US refinery runs while Red Sea attacks continue to disrupt trade flows and global inventories remain below normal.
  • US gasoline crack up 0.3$/bbl at 28.38$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack up 0.4$/bbl at 32.94$/bbl