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Currencies Recovering Following Tuesday Slump, USDMXN Remains +2% This Week

EM FX
  • Higher/stable equities alongside lower US yields are contributing to a more favourable environment for emerging market currencies on Wednesday. The JPM EM currency index has risen broadly in line with the lower adjustment for the USD index, however, remains in deep negative territory on the week, down 0.95%.
  • In CEEMEA, the Hungarian Forint is relatively outperforming on the week. Comments from NBH chief economist Zsolt Kuti highlighted the role of the forint’s exchange rate and its effect on the economy has become more important in setting monetary policy. EURHUF sits down 0.63% on the session.
  • EURPLN has had a similar adjustment on the day, however, PLNHUF remains down 1.3% on the week, highlighting the Zloty’s relative sensitivity stemming from its strong showing earlier in the year.
  • In similar vein, USDMXN was also thrust into the spotlight on Tuesday, rising to levels just shy of 17.10. The pair trades 0.66% lower in early trade today, however, we remain 4.30% above last week’s lows as positioning dynamics may have exacerbated the squeeze.
  • USD/THB stands out as rising 0.5%, however it’s important to note that Thailand markets returned today, after being shut since last Thursday (11th of April). The pair briefly rose above the April highs marked at 36.84 and a sustained break would likely see 37.00 targeted. Latest comments from the finance ministry indicate they see little economic impact from the Israel-Iran conflict and that fiscal policy will drive the Thai economy for the remainder of 2024.
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