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Currency Frailty to Pose Further Problems for NBH

HUF
  • Recent HUF weakness should remain a concern for the NBH when they hold their next rate setting meeting on March 26th - the HUF has underperformed all other regional currencies this year except the TRY. Back in January, the NBH decided to err on the side of caution with a 75bp rate cut (vs consensus of a 100bps move) after EURHUF had rallied ~2.5% in the weeks leading up to the decision. While the scale of rate cuts was accelerated last month, the cross remains within range of cycle highs ahead of next week's meeting.
  • Spot volatility continues to climb - 1w realised vol today sits at a new YTD high and the highest since the mid-December spike. This contrasts with still subdued implied vols - meaning markets were left underhedged last week.
  • EURHUF (+0.5%) has started the week on the front foot, though had briefly traded below support at 393.07, the 20-day EMA, earlier in the session. For now, technical conditions remain bullish after the cross recorded a fresh cycle high last week. The 400.00 handle and 402.45, the Mar 20 2023 high, mark topside levels to watch.
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