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Current Account Deficit Narrowing Following Concerning Levels

NEW ZEALAND

The Q2 NZ current account deficit narrowed more than expected to $4.2bn from a downwardly revised $4.7bn. Seasonally adjusted it narrowed $1bn to $6.6bn, due to a better trade deficit. This resulted in the ratio to GDP falling to 7.5% from 8.2% in Q1. This brings it on track to meet the RBNZ’s revised forecast of 6.8% for Q1 2024. Q4 2022 looks to have been the peak at 8.8% of GDP, one of the worst in the OECD.

  • Q2 saw a 4.5% q/q rise in exports of goods & services bringing the annual rate to +10.5% y/y, whereas imports fell 3.1% q/q to be up only 0.9% y/y. Both goods and services exports rose over 4% on the quarter driven by dairy products and tourism, which should be a positive for Q2 GDP released on Thursday.
  • The primary income deficit widened by $1.3bn to $11.6bn due to higher interest rates, according to Stats NZ

NZ current account deficit % GDP

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv

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