Current Gov't On Course For Re-Election In 17 March Vote

The current Dutch gov't made up of PM Mark Rutte's centre-right liberal People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), the centrist Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA), the pro-EU Democrats 66 (D66), and the social conservative Christian Union (CU), would win enough seats to be re-elected as a majority coalition in the legislative election slated for 17 March.

• Kantar Public poll: (Seat projection): VVD: 40, CDA: 19 (+2), PVV: 17, D66: 15, PvdA: 13, SP: 12 (+2), GL: 11 (-1), CU: 6 (-1), PvdD: 6, 50+: 3 (-1), FvD 3, SGP: 2, Denk: 1 (-1), JA21: 1, Volt: 1. +/- vs. 22-24 Feb. Fieldwork: 6-8 Mar. 2021. Sample size: 1,596.
• It is of course not guaranteed that the four parties would be willing to form a gov't once again. One potential option raised has been the replacement of the CU with the centre-left Labour Party (PvdA) to create a broad centrist alliance of the four historically-dominant Dutch political parties.
• Under the scenario presented by the Kantar poll, there would be the mathematical possibility of a reformation of Rutte's first gov't, a minority coalition of the VVD and CDA propped up by the right-wing populist Party for Freedom (PVV) of Geert Wilders from outside gov't in a confidence and supply agreement. According to the Kantar poll, this gov't would garner 76 seats, just enough to hold an overall majority in the 150-member House of Representatives.
• However, a right-wing coalition remains a very unlikely outcome given Rutte's rejection of a coalition with the PVV (citing Wilders 'running away' from gov't in 2012) over the weekend. Rutte compared the PVV to the Socialist Party, saying the only policy Wilders was too the right on was immigration.