MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, December 10

MNI BRIEF: China Nov Exports Slows, Imports Slide

MNI BRIEF: China Crude Oil Imports Accelerate In November

CHINA NOV EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +8.9% Y/Y: CUSTOMS

MNI: CHINA YTD EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY90.3 Bln via OMO Tuesday

US NFIB NOV SMALL BUSINESS INDEX 101.7

MNI: GERMAN NOV CPI +2.2 % Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CORE CPI +0.1% M/M, +3% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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Curves Twist to Least Inverted Levels Since Oct'23

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures look to finish near late session lows Wednesday, curves twisting to the least inverted levels since October 2023 (2s10s tapped -13.040 high). After the bell, Sep'24 10Y futures traded -7 at 110-21 just below initial technical support of 110-21+ (20D EMA).
  • Short end rates well bid after former NY Fed Pres Dudley suggested rate cuts warranted now, not later in the year. In turn: projected rate cut pricing into year end are gained vs. this morning's levels (*): July'24 at -5.5% w/ cumulative at -1.4bp at 5.315%, Sep'24 cumulative -27.3bp (-25bp), Nov'24 cumulative -42.8bp (-40.1bp), Dec'24 -65.3bp (-62.8bp).
  • Treasury futures holding near early session highs, drawing modest sell interest after mixed Wholesale/Retail Inventories data, Advanced Goods Trade Balance slightly lower than expected.
  • Futures remain mixed after lower than expected New Home Sales for June. Curves remain steeper with intermediates to long end underperforming since the mixed flash PMI data came out.
  • Tsy futures pare gains slightly after the $70B 5Y note auction (91282CLC3) tail: drawing 4.121% high yield vs. 4.111% WI; 2.40x bid-to-cover vs. 2.36x for the prior auction.
  • Focus turns to Thursday's GDP, Core PCE Weekly Claims and 7Y Note Sale.
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