CWE- German August-September Diverge

German August and September contracts have diverged this morning, with September tracking losses in European gas and EU ETS, while August has been lifted up by fossil-fired power plant maintenance – narrowing the September premium to the latter contract. However, gains in August could be limited as falling energy prices continue to place downward pressure on power.

• Germany Base Power SEP 24 down 1.6% at 75.60 EUR/MWh
  
• Germany Base Power AUG 24 up 0.5% at 70.00 EUR/MWh
• France Base Power AUG 24 up 0.1% at 47.44 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 down 0.6% at 65.90 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas AUG 24 down 2.7% at 31.30 EUR/MWh
• The German September-August power base load contract has narrowed its premium to €5.31/MWh at the time of writing compared to €7.18/MWh on 19 July.
• TTF falls as gas in store builds amid easing the supply risks, but the front month remains above the monthly low of €30.3256/MWh seen on July 11.
• EU ETS Dec 24 remains relatively range-bound after the previous session slightly declining supported by losses in European gas
• Germany’s 189MW and 116MW Teifstack coal unit 2 and Wedel unit 2, respectively, will go offline on 28 July, with the units returning on 9-15 September.
• The 282MW Reuter West unit D coal plant will be disconnected over 4-15 August and the 233MW HKW Mitte gas plant will be offline over 31 July – 4 August.
• Forecasts for wind output in Germany have been revised slightly, with the forecast on 23 July (Tuesday) up by around 562MW on the day to reach a 15% load factor or 9.46GW before rising to a 16% load factor the next day.
• French nuclear availability rose to 73% as of Monday morning, up from 71% on 19 July, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
• EdF has started its Cruas 4 and Golfech 2 units and has brought forward the outage at its 1.49GW Civaux 1 reactor by 9 days, with the unit returning on 26 July.
• The latest ECMWF weather forecast for Paris, suggests an upward revision of average temperatures over 22-24 July, with the forecasts up by an average of around 1.2C over the period. Max temperatures are anticipated between 24.2-35.5C over 23-31 July – with the highest temperature recorded on 30 July, which could spur cooling demand.