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CWE Sept Power Rebound

POWER

German and French front-month power contracts are rebounding today after yesterday’s decline amid a recovery in the energy complex. Latest weather forecasts for NW Europe suggested temperatures will remain above normal throughout the next ten days.

    • France Base Power SEP 24 up 2.2% at 60 EUR/MWh
    • Germany Base Power SEP 24 up 2.1% at 85.92 EUR/MWh
    • EUA DEC 24 up 2.2% at 70.23 EUR/MT
    • TTF Gas SEP 24 up 2.1% at 36.255 EUR/MWh
  • TTF front month rebounds from the lows of €34.745/MWh yesterday supported by a recovery in wider market risk sentiment and with escalating Middle East risks. Supply could be at risk amid growing concerns that Iran is expected to retaliate for Israel’s killing of Hamas’ political leader in Tehran.
  • EU ETS Dec24 is also pulling higher today with gains in the natural gas market, while German factory orders rose for the first time this year, suggesting some recovery in the industrial sector. The next EU EUA CAP 3 auction will clear today 11:00 CET.
  • French nuclear availability has been stable at 76% of capacity as of Tuesday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • In France, wind output is forecast at 2.11GW during base-load hours on Wednesday, slightly higher on the day. Solar output is forecast at 3.5GW during base load on Wednesday, down on the day according to SpotRenewables.
  • French power demand is forecast at a maximum of 52.6GW on Tuesday and of 53.1GW on Wednesday, Entso-E data showed.
  • The latest 6-10day ECMWF weather forecast for Paris has been revised up with temperatures throughout the forecast period above the 30-year normal, while temperatures are still expected to fall from 13 August onwards.
  • French net power exports to Belgium are scheduled at 2.96GW to Belgium on Tuesday, up from 2.39GW on Monday. To Germany, net flows are scheduled at 2.32GW, up from 2.28GW scheduled for Monday, while flows to Italy are seen at 2.5GW for Tuesday, stable on the day, Entso-E data showed.
  • In Germany, wind output is forecast at 4.7GW during baseload on Wednesday, slightly higher on the day. Solar PV output is forecast to reach up to 45.3GW on Tuesday and up to 35.2GW on Wednesday according to SpotRenewables.
  • German power demand is forecast to peak at 63.05GW on Tuesday and at 62.96GW on Wednesday, Entso-E data showed.

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