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CWE Sept Pulls Back

POWER

German front-month power baseload is pulling lower today with weaker natural gas prices and European carbon allowances. Losses in the French front-month power contract are steeper, also weighed on by slightly cooler weather forecasts.

    • France Base Power SEP 24 down 4.4% at 57.25 EUR/MWh
    • Germany Base Power SEP 24 down 2.2% at 84.95 EUR/MWh
    • EUA DEC 24 down 0.5% at 69.61 EUR/MT
    • TTF Gas SEP 24 down 1.6% at 36.105 EUR/MWh
  • TTF front month eases back from the high of the last week of around €37/MWh with Middle East supply risks and above normal temperatures weighed against muted industrial demand and building storage.
  • EU ETS Dec24 is edging lower today with losses in natural gas markets. There will be no auction today.
  • French nuclear availability has been stable at 76% of capacity as of Wednesday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg. The 890MW Dampierre 1 nuclear reactor must save fuel equal to 39 days of fuel load operation for the next refuelling maintenance planned on 28 June 2025.
  • In France, wind output is forecast at 1.76GW during baseload on Thursday, down from 2.11GW forecast for today. Solar PV output in France is forecast to increase on Thursday to 4.73GW during baseload, up from 3.5GW forecast for Wednesday according to SpotRenewables.
  • French power demand is forecast to rise up to 51.95GW on Thursday, down from a maximum of 53.1GW on Wednesday, Entso-E data showed.
  • The latest 6-10day ECMWF weather forecast for Paris has been slightly revised down at the start and at the and of the forecast period, with mean temperatures still above the 30-year normal throughout the forecast period.
  • French net power exports to Belgium are scheduled at 2.16GW for Wednesday, up from 2.96GW scheduled for Tuesday. To Germany, net flows are scheduled at 2.82GW, up from 2.32GW for Tuesday, while flows to Italy are broadly stable at 2.49GW for Wednesday, Entso-E data showed.
  • In Germany, wind output is forecast to rise to 6.19GW during baseload on Thursday, up from 4.7GW forecast for Wednesday. Solar PV output is forecast to decline on the day to 9.95GW during baseload according to SpotRenewables.
  • German power demand is forecast to peak at 62.3GW on Thursday, compared with a max load of 62.96GW on Wednesday, Entso-E data showed.
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