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Dallas Sees Another Regional Fed Mfg Survey With Orders Under Pressure

US DATA
  • The Dallas Fed manufacturing index offered another regional Fed report that suggests surprise strength in the Philly Fed equivalent looks isolated.
  • The index fell to -17.5 (cons -15.5) in July after -15.1, with a more notable slip in new orders from -1.3 to -12.8 for its lowest since Nov’23.
  • Summarizing the latest changes in new orders: Philly was the highest since Mar’22 and Empire was essentially unchanged on the month but technically the highest since Sep’23. However, Dallas saw the lowest since Nov’23, Richmond the lowest since May’23 but 1pt off being joint lowest since pandemic and Kansas the lowest since the pandemic and before that 2008-09.
  • The same can be said for the price components within the survey. Dallas Fed prices received more than reversed what had been a swift increase in June as they fell from 14.4 to 3.4 in July (2019 av 2.5).
  • Taking a step back to the overall index readings, the five regional Fed surveys point to limited monthly change for ISM manufacturing, broadly consistent with consensus looking for 48.8 after 48.5 in the July report due Aug 1.
  • The recent step lower in the PMI equivalent notably comes after some relative frothiness whilst Wednesday’s MNI Chicago PMI will offer a final steer.

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