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Danske Recommend Adding SEK FRA vs Euribor Jun24-Mar-25 Flattener

SWEDEN

Danske enter a new tactical trade recommendation, adding a SEK FRA vs Euribor Jun24-Mar-25 flattener at 8.5bp to target -15bp, with a stop-loss at 25bp.

  • Although Danske hold an out of consensus call for the Riksbank to remain on hold next week (with the first cut instead coming in June), their medium-term Swedish inflation forecast points to an undershooting of the target.
  • “Looking into 2025, we hence also see little reason for the very front in SEK to be less inverted than EUR”…“especially if the Riksbank stays on hold next week, we would expect Jun-24 to move a tad higher and result in more inversion”.
  • “The SEK FRA steepening move in 2024 can be attributed to the international sell-off and was not driven by domestic inflation outcomes. We think this will change with Riksbank cuts around the corner and inflation close (or below) to target”.

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