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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessData Continues to Temper Rate Cut Expectations
- Treasury futures mostly weaker, near midday lows after the bell, curves bear steepening with the short end holding steady (TUH4 102-21.88). Off Wednesday's four month highs, the 2s10s is still +4.236 after the bell at -21.865.
- Large curve Block underscored the move: +24,980 TUH4 102-22.25, buy through 102-21.88 post time offer, DV01 $954,600 vs. -15,135 TYH4, 111-06.5, post time bid, DV01 $985,600.
- Treasury futures reversed early gains/gapped lower after lower than expected Initial Jobless Claims (187k vs 205k est), Continuing Claims (1.806M vs. 1.843M est) -- not to mention higher than expected Building Permits (1.495M vs 1.476M est) and Housing Starts (1.460M vs 1.425M est, prior down-revised to 1.525M from 1.560M).
- Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, was revised up to 47.2 in December from 46.9, as result of the annual seasonal adjustment recalculation.
- Mar'24 10Y futures hit 111-04.5 low (-9) on the day, briefly through initial technical support of 111-06+ (Low Jan 05) before rebounding to 111-07. 10Y yield firmly above 4% to 4.1516% high on the day.
- Fed speak: Philly Fed Harker said he expects inflation to fall steadily toward 2% and labor market tightness to continue to ease, suggesting heightened chances of a soft landing. Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic Thursday repeated he expects policymakers to begin cutting interest rates in the third quarter, but added if there is a further accumulation of soft inflation data then cuts could begin sooner.
- Projected rate cuts held steady to mixed: January 2024 cumulative -0.6bp at 5.323%, March 2024 chance of rate cut -52.4% vs. -58.2% early Thursday w/ cumulative of -13.7bp at 5.192%, May near steady at -88.4% w/ cumulative -35.8bp at 4.970%. June still pricing in the first 25bp cut with cumulative -61.9bp at 4.710%. Fed terminal at 5.32% in Feb'24.
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.