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Dealing Mixed After National CPI, BoJ Rinban Operations Today

JGBS

In Tokyo morning trade, JGB futures are holding in positive territory, +4 compared to settlement levels.

  • This comes after December CPI prints close to expectations. The headline rose 2.6% y/y, against the 2.5% forecast and 2.8% prior. The ex-fresh food measure was 2.3% y/y, in line with estimates (2.5% prior). The ex-fresh food and energy measure was 3.7% y/y, also in line with estimates (3.8% prior). The core measure which excludes all food and energy rose to 2.8% y/y, from 2.7% in Nov (although it was flat in m/m terms, non-seasonally adjusted).
  • So, whilst headline inflation continues to moderate in y/y terms, there are some pockets of strength, particularly on the services side, which has been evident for a few months. Still, expectations for next week's BoJ meeting are fairly low regarding any meaningful changes.
  • Cash US tsys are dealing 1-2bps cheaper in today’s Asia-Pac session. There hasn’t been anything meaningful on the newsflow front so far today.
  • Cash JGBs are dealing slightly mixed. The benchmark 10-year yield is 0.2bp higher at 0.652% versus the Nov-Dec rally low of 0.555%.
  • The BOJ will hold debt-buying operations for tenors of 1-3 years, 3-5 years, 5-10 years and over 25 years today.
  • Swaps curve has bear-steepened, with rates flat to 2bps higher. Swap spreads are wider.

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