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Dealing On A Strong Note, US Retail Sales Later Today, Nov-33 Supply Tomorrow

AUSSIE BONDS
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ACGBs (YM +6.0 & XM +7.0) are richer and close to Sydney session highs. With the domestic calendar light, local traders have found direction from cash US tsys, which are 1-2bps richer in today’s Asia-Pac session. The US calendar will see Retail Sales and Import/Export Prices data, and earnings from Bank of America, Charles Schwab, State Street and Morgan Stanley.

  • The market’s focus, however, remains on Thursday’s Employment Report. Bloomberg consensus expects a +20k employment change following May’s +39.7k, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.1% from 4.0% prior.
  • Cash ACGBs are 6-7bps richer, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +5bps.
  • Swap rates are 7-9bps lower.
  • The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing +2 to +8.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 6-8bps softer for 2025 meetings. Terminal rate expectations sit at 4.40%, the lowest level since the release of May’s higher-than-expected CPI Monthly data.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see the Westpac Leading Index.
  • Across the Tasman, the NZ calendar will see the release of Q2 CPI data tomorrow.
  • Tomorrow, the AOFM plans to sell A$500mn of the 3.00% 21 November 2033 bond. A sale of A$700mn of the 2.75% 21 November 2027 bond is also scheduled for Friday.
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ACGBs (YM +6.0 & XM +7.0) are richer and close to Sydney session highs. With the domestic calendar light, local traders have found direction from cash US tsys, which are 1-2bps richer in today’s Asia-Pac session. The US calendar will see Retail Sales and Import/Export Prices data, and earnings from Bank of America, Charles Schwab, State Street and Morgan Stanley.

  • The market’s focus, however, remains on Thursday’s Employment Report. Bloomberg consensus expects a +20k employment change following May’s +39.7k, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.1% from 4.0% prior.
  • Cash ACGBs are 6-7bps richer, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +5bps.
  • Swap rates are 7-9bps lower.
  • The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing +2 to +8.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 6-8bps softer for 2025 meetings. Terminal rate expectations sit at 4.40%, the lowest level since the release of May’s higher-than-expected CPI Monthly data.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see the Westpac Leading Index.
  • Across the Tasman, the NZ calendar will see the release of Q2 CPI data tomorrow.
  • Tomorrow, the AOFM plans to sell A$500mn of the 3.00% 21 November 2033 bond. A sale of A$700mn of the 2.75% 21 November 2027 bond is also scheduled for Friday.