Dec nonfarm payrolls are expected...>

US DATA PREVIEW: Dec nonfarm payrolls are expected to surge 190k, returning the

2017 year average to its pre-storm level of 176k. Private payrolls are expected

to rise 185k, with an upside risk due to the ADP number.

- There is no clear risk to the payrolls forecast, as there were 6 overestimates

in past 10 years but 4 underestimates in past 6 years. 

- Unemployment should stay at the 17-year historic low of 4.1%, but there could

be a small surprise given the scheduled benchmark revisions to household survey

data.

- Average hourly earnings are expect to rise 0.3%, but base effects will keep

the year/year rate at +2.5%. Recent market attention to wage pressures suggest

even this small improvement could be positive for USD.