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Desjardins Bank, JP Morgan Review BoC

CANADA
Desjardins: The Bank opted for "status quo" after more hawkish moves in October. "While economic conditions are relatively good with solid job gains and real GDP growth, it would have been premature to move to the next stage of monetary policy normalization at this point, namely gradual key interest rate hikes.
  • A number of uncertainties remain, including the spread of the new Omicron variant and, specifically in Canada, the potential effects of recent flooding in British Columbia. However, with the economic recovery and current high-flying inflation rates, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to justify keeping the target rate at the effective lower bound for several more quarters."
JP Morgan: JPM expects the Bank to "raise the policy rate in July 2022, the midpoint of the Bank’s time frame.
  • However, the recent robustness of the labor market suggests the Bank has been confronted with heightened uncertainty around the amount of labor market slack. We believe this raises the risk that the Bank will start the hiking cycle earlier than we expect.
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