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Deutsche: 10Y USTs Still Overvalued, Even After Payrolls

US OUTLOOK/OPINION

Deutsche says its models show long end Treasuries remain expensive, "despite the impressive bear steepening post payroll". Fair value (which their model calculates with inputs such as the Fed funds rate, 1Y1Y OIS, spec positioning) vs current market pricing "is at the widest level within the sample period of 2008 to present date". That conclusion also stands when looking at cross-asset principal component analysis residuals (ie incorporating movements in FX, equities, commodities etc).


Source: Deutsche Bank

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