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Deutsche Bank Sees Scope For More Homogenous BanRep Vote

COLOMBIA
  • Deutsche Bank expect BanRep to trim the policy rate 50bp to 11.25% on Friday. The souring of sentiment towards a handful of LatAm economies recently warrants prioritising the risk-management aspect of monetary policy and may bring about a more homogenous vote relative to the previous couple of meetings, in their view.
  • DB project continued declines of headline and core inflation, with the former likely going through a brief stalling before resuming its retreat. Median inflation expectations derived from BanRep’s survey offer a mixed picture. While 12m expectations maintain a declining path, end-24 expectations continue to drift further away from the target band.
  • DB continue to pencil in the policy rate closing the year at 8.75%. Insofar as monetary policy and inflation follow the trajectories DB envision, the monetary stance would remain restrictive through Q1 2025. Tight monetary conditions should arguably be upheld for some time to support the continued convergence of inflation and inflation expectations to the target amid persistent domestic and external challenges, in their view.
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