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Deutsche: Core Set To Slow Despite "Sturdy" Rent Gains

US OUTLOOK/OPINION

Deutsche expects headline M/M CPI to accelerate in February to +0.71% (vs +0.65% prior)/7.8% Y/Y, largely on energy price gains. Conversely, they see core slowing to +0.42% (+0.58% prior)/6.3% Y/Y.

  • Those expectations are lower than consensus (+0.8% headline, +0.5% core).
  • On core, they expect slowdowns in used vehicles, medical care commodities, apparel, and transportation services, and "further weakness" in lodging away from home.
  • However, they see key services categories offering an upward offset: OER, primary rents, and medical services set to post "sturdy gains".
  • They see February marking the Y/Y peak in headline inflation, with core cresting in March.
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