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DI Swap Rates Fall, USDBRL Just Moderately Lower

BRAZIL
  • The BCB’s unanimous hold overnight has prompted a positive market reaction so far, as swap rates have fallen across the DI curve. Particular outperformance is seen at the front-end of the curve, with Jan 26’s declining as much as 17bps. Bolstering this market reaction has been the broad acknowledgement of the committee’s determination to re-anchor inflation expectations and the analyst community largely ruling out the chance of near-term rate hikes from the BCB.
  • In similar vein, there has been a positive BRL response, with USDBRL remaining 0.54% lower since the open. The potential impact on the currency will have likely been offset by the stronger dollar on Thursday, however, USDBRL trend conditions remain firmly in bullish territory. On the downside, initial support to watch moves up to 5.3141, the 20-day EMA.
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