Diesel Markets Rally on Tight Supplies from Maintenance Period

Diesel prices rally today reflecting concern for tighter supplies as Russian diesel exports are expected to fall in September.

• The ICE Gasoil prompt spread has risen from a low of nearly 12$/mt yesterday up to 19$/mt while the Dec23-Dec24 spread is up from about 86$/mt to reach 100$/mt today.
• Both US and Europe diesel margins are regaining ground today after a steady decline from a high on 25 August. Prices are today supported by ongoing low global inventories and with upcoming refinery maintenance outages.
• Europe’s diesel imports fell 30% m-o-m in August to the lowest since March 2023 according to Vortexa data, driven by a sharp decline in arrivals from India.
• Russian diesel exports from key western ports are expected to fall by a quarter this month amid seasonal refinery maintenance and government efforts to maintain domestic supplies.
• Data this week showed US distillate stocks still nearly 15% below the five year average, European ARA Gasoil stocks are 17.75% below and Singapore Middle Distillates inventories 22.7% below average.
  • Gasoil SEP 23 up 3.4% at 976.5$/mt
  • ULSD OCT 23 up 2.4% at 3.29$/gal
  • Gasoil SEP 23-OCT 23 up 3.25$/mt at 19.25$/mt
  • Gasoil DEC 23-DEC 24 up 11.75$/mt at 99.5$/mt
  • EU Gasoil-Brent up 1.9$/bbl at 33.38$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack up 2.1$/bbl at 50.68$/bbl