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Disappointing Activity Data Following Copom, GDP Estimate Cut

BRAZIL
  • Brazil January Economic Activity -0.99% M/m; Est. -0.17% (BBG)
  • Brazil January Economic Activity +0.01% Y/y; Est. +0.77% (BBG)
    • Brazil reduces 2022 GDP growth estimate to 1.5% from 2.1% (BBG)
  • January 2023 DI contracts are down 15bps following last nights Copom decision and statement while the Brazilian real remains fairly steady around yesterday’s closing point. The committee have signalled another 100bps rate hike in May, however, bets on a more prolonged tightening cycle are being trimmed as the statement indicated current circumstances require “serenity to assess the size and duration of the current shocks”.
  • Brazil will gradually phase out tax rates on foreign exchange transactions as part of its efforts to join the OECD, under a decree published Wednesday.
    • Signed by President Jair Bolsonaro and Economy Minister Paulo Guedes, the measure eliminates the 6% tax on foreign loans starting Jan. 2, 2023, while the tax rate on foreign credit card transactions and travelers’ checks will gradually fall to zero from 6.38% by Jan. 2, 2028. (BBG)
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