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Dollar Nudges Higher, JPY & NZD Underperformers

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The USD has recovered further ground in the first part of Tuesday dealings. The BBDXY USD index was last near 1253.35, up 0.10% versus end Monday levels. We remain comfortably sub pre CPI levels from last Thursday around 1259.

  • Data outcomes have been very light today, while earlier Fed speak from Daly stated a policy adjustment is coming but timing is uncertain. This comes after Fed Chair Powell stated the central bank was getting more confident inflation is on its way to 2% (paving the way for rate cuts) during Monday's US session.
  • US yields sit 1.5-2bps lower today, with cash Tsy curves still close to 2024 highs, as the market contemplates a potential Trump Presidency, which all else equal, may be reflationary. This, for the USD, is providing some offset to dovish Fed pricing.
  • The Republican National Convention continued today, with Trump stating his VP candidate would be JD Vance, a Senator from Ohio.
  • USD/JPY has risen around 0.40%, last near 158.70. Reuters reported onshore USD demand ahead of the Tokyo fix and from importers, with onshore markets returning today from the long weekend.
  • NZD/USD is off 0.30%, last under 0.6060, fresh lows back to early July. AUD/USD is only down, but marginally less, last near 0.6745. The AUD/NZD cross just off fresh highs (1.1143), last near 1.1135.
  • Looking ahead, we have some ECB speak, the German ZEW survey, along with US data outcomes, highlighted by retail sales.
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The USD has recovered further ground in the first part of Tuesday dealings. The BBDXY USD index was last near 1253.35, up 0.10% versus end Monday levels. We remain comfortably sub pre CPI levels from last Thursday around 1259.

  • Data outcomes have been very light today, while earlier Fed speak from Daly stated a policy adjustment is coming but timing is uncertain. This comes after Fed Chair Powell stated the central bank was getting more confident inflation is on its way to 2% (paving the way for rate cuts) during Monday's US session.
  • US yields sit 1.5-2bps lower today, with cash Tsy curves still close to 2024 highs, as the market contemplates a potential Trump Presidency, which all else equal, may be reflationary. This, for the USD, is providing some offset to dovish Fed pricing.
  • The Republican National Convention continued today, with Trump stating his VP candidate would be JD Vance, a Senator from Ohio.
  • USD/JPY has risen around 0.40%, last near 158.70. Reuters reported onshore USD demand ahead of the Tokyo fix and from importers, with onshore markets returning today from the long weekend.
  • NZD/USD is off 0.30%, last under 0.6060, fresh lows back to early July. AUD/USD is only down, but marginally less, last near 0.6745. The AUD/NZD cross just off fresh highs (1.1143), last near 1.1135.
  • Looking ahead, we have some ECB speak, the German ZEW survey, along with US data outcomes, highlighted by retail sales.