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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
FED
The obvious talking point in the release is the shift higher in the median Fed funds dot to 5.1% at end-2024 (1 cut this year) from 4.6% in March (3 cuts), vs most expectations they'd pencil in 2 cuts.
- The distribution ticked up noticeably this year, and had a carry-over impact into 2025 (with that median rising 25bp to 4.1%) and to a lesser extent 2026 (median unchanged at 3.1%).
- 11 (of 19) participants saw 1 or fewer cuts this year, up from 4 last time; 4 saw no cuts, vs 2 last time.
- 8 still see 2 cuts this year. But previously, 10 saw 3 or more cuts - now that number is zero.
- The question this naturally poses for the press conference is: did participants have today's CPI in hand before they finalized these projections?
- See below for new dot distribution compared to March:
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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