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Dots Lean Hawkish, Core PCE Forecasts Higher Than Expected

FED

At first glance: minimal statement changes and a Dot Plot that leans hawkish vs expectations in terms of both medians and distributions (more on which shortly).

  • The core PCE inflation median forecasts for 2023 and 2024 are high (3.5% and 2.5% respectively) vs what analysts expected, while real GDP growth in 2023 is on the low side as well. Unemp rate forecasts are not too high vs expectations.
  • No changes to longer-run dots.

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