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Drifted Cheaper, Post-RBA Adjustment Continued, CPI Monthly On Wednesday

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM -4.0 & XM -4.5) are cheaper and at/near Sydney session lows. With the domestic calendar light, the local market took its cue from cash US tsys, which are dealing flat to 1bp cheaper in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s modest sell-off.

  • That said, ACGB market weakness also likely reflects an ongoing adjustment by local participants to the RBA’s hawkish hold on Tuesday.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 6-12bps firmer for meetings beyond August versus pre-RBA levels. 6bps of easing is priced by year-end from an expected terminal rate of 4.37%.
  • Cash ACGBs are 3bps cheaper. The AU-US 10-year yield differential is at -2bps, the highest level since February. The AU-NZ 10-year differential, at -38bps, is also near the highest level for the year. The lowest level was -65bps.
  • Swap rates are 2bps higher.
  • The bills strip has bear-steepened, with pricing -1 to -5.
  • Next week, the local calendar will see the sale of A$900mn of the 3.25% Apr-29 bond on Monday, Westpac Consumer Confidence on Tuesday and May’s CPI Monthly on Wednesday.
  • RBA Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor (Financial Markets), will give a speech at the ABA Banking Conference on Wednesday.
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