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US TSYS SUMMARY: Driven by dovish comments from ECB President Draghi and a
six-month low in the German ZEW expectations component, benchmark 10y UST yields
have fallen to their lowest level since September 2017 with the 10y yield
falling 5.0bp today to 2.045%.
- The downbeat comments have put further spotlight on the FOMC meeting tomorrow.
The bar is very high for the Fed to meet the very dovish expectations currently
priced into markets. The first hurdle will be to remove the word "patient" from
the statement, there will also be focus on how many of the dots are looking for
cuts in coming years. The key question will be how the Fed answer the question
of the disconnect between the Fed's view and the market pricing.
- 2y yields down -4.1bp today at 1.831%
- 5y yields down -4.9bp today at 1.807%
- 10y yields down -5.0bp today at 2.045%
- 30y yields down -4.5bp today at 2.538%
- 2s10s down -0.9bp today at 21.4bp
- 10s30s up 0.5bp today at 49.3bp

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