Duda's Decision On PM Candidate Headlines Local Political News

President Andrzej Duda's decision on who will get the first chance to form government remains shrouded in uncertainty and is set to take centre stage today. While the pro-EU coalition looks set to take power within the next few weeks, the President's can facilitate or delay this process. The decision will be announced at 19:GMT/20:00CET.

• Duda was initially expected to ask outgoing Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki to form government after hinting at such a scenario prior to the recent general elections. While the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party emerged as the front-runner, it fell short of a simple majority. Coupled with its limited coalition potential, this implies that any such attempt by Morawiecki would fail, while the pro-EU coalition is set to eventually form government.
• The Presidential Palace has been refusing to make any firm commitments so far, with Duda merely suggesting that both Morawiecki and opposition leader Donald Tusk claim that they are able to form a majority coalition in the new parliament. The lack of clear signals from the President may have stemmed from genuine hesitation on his part as he is facing conflicting pressures - from his former party on the one hand and from the emerging coalition on the other.
• Gazeta Wyborcza circulated a report covering last week's meeting between Interior Minister Mariusz Kaminski and heads of various security services (the police, special services and Border Guard), most of whom are looking to resign. A source told the newspaper that Kaminski advised them to "evacuate themselves" before Donald Tusk starts forming government this week, which suggests that the ruling part expects the President to ask the leader of the pro-EU camp to become Prime Minister.
• Should Duda tap Tusk to become Prime Minister, the government could probably be installed soon after the new parliament convenes on November 13 (and no later than on December 11). If he chooses to give Morawiecki the first chance to form government, Tusk could take power no later than on December 25. Another scenario discussed in local media has involved nominating a third-party candidate, but this is not seen as the most likely option.
• As things stand, local bookmaker STS puts the decimal odds of a Morawiecki nomination on 1.40 and those of a Tusk nomination on 2.75 (i.e. Morawiecki is the favourite). The less probable scenario in which Tusk is immediately nominated to become Prime Minister could lend support to Polish assets, as it would give the incoming administration more time to rewrite the 2024 budget and open the door to renewed official talks with Brussels over the release of frozen funds.