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(Z1) Off Lows, But Remains Weak


Still Vulnerable


Bullish Price Sequence

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  • Duma elections start in Russia's Eastern-most regions: Kamchatsky & Chukotsky as elections kick off over the weekend.
    • FM Spox Zakharova said US meddling in elections has already been noted but Russia will not turn this into a PR campaigns or use megaphone diplomacy, but rather engage with the US on the facts – reiterating that its embassy presented the US with a report on the matter
  • CBR's Nabiullina sees CPI peaking around 7% in September in an interview as impact of one-time factors fades, rate increases have impact.
    • "We don't see huge risks of inflation undershooting, we are acting carefully" - Monetary conditions only now becoming neutral if rates compared to inflation expectations.
    • Doesn't see major risks from fluctuations in foreign share of OFZ ownership; government debt isn't large enough to create risks to financial stability
  • Russia's holdings of US in Treasury bills in July remained at the level of the previous month - $ 4.006bn.
    • in April, Russia almost halved its holdings from $96bn -$48.7bn on the back of US debt sanctions and then declined farther to $14.9bn in May – but are now showing signs of stabilizing
  • Washington and Moscow discuss the possibility of a visit to Russia by U.S. Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs – no date provided, but November was floated as a potential date


  • 0800BST: CBR Gov Nabiullina holds presser at banking conference in Sochi