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Dust Is Settling After NBP Presser, Two Largest Parties To Unveil Campaign Pledges

POLAND
  • NBP Governor Adam Glapinski was adamant that the conditions were ripe for delivering a jumbo-sized 75bp rate cut earlier this week. During his press conference yesterday, the official said that high-frequency data suggest that inflation fell to single-digit levels this month, while projections continue to suggest that it will ease into the target range in 2024 or 2025. Meanwhile, deteriorating external environment is creating a drag on Poland's economic growth. Glapinski suggested that the MPC could have started lowering interest rates three months earlier, but as a conservative central bank it chose to wait until this week and hence packed "overdue" cuts into one 75bp move. As a reminder, consensus was leaning towards a 25bp cut this week, with many dissenting voices in favour of an on-hold decision.
  • Members of the hawkish camp in the MPC spoke after this week's surprising rate decision. Joanna Tyrowicz wrote on LinkedIn that there are no indications that inflation is under control, while Ludwik Kotecki told Business Insider that the latest monetary policy decision was a mistake, as it will draw accusations of political motivation and undermine the NBP's credibility. Speculation has been rife that the pre-election context was not irrelevant for the central bank's thinking, with Rzeczpospolita running a front-page opinion piece noting that "the NBP is no longer an independent central bank".
  • The ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party halted the daily announcements of its campaign pledges to focus on targeting its main rivals from the Civic Coalition (KO) today. Both are expected to unveil their election manifestos at campaign rallies tomorrow.
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