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Early Bid Evaporates

US TSYS SUMMARY
Tsy futures reversed early gains, trading weaker after the close, holding lower session range since late morning. Continued hawkish comments from Fed Bostic ("well on road to substantial further progress") and Barkin (infl exp "impressively stable") underscored the move.
  • Democrats Dump Debt Limit From Budget Resolution? Politico headlines on Dems budget resolution: "Democrats omit debt limit from budget that launches $3.5T party-line spending plan", the prospect of quick passage keeping lid on early bid in rates, misc acct selling 10s-30s.
  • Tsys followed German Bunds lower around midmorning -- otherwise no obvious headline driver by midmorning; 10YY climbed to session high of 1.3221% during second half -- well over the 200DMA 1.2908%.
  • Focus turns to Wed's Consumer Price Index after last Friday's better than expected July jobs data (+943k; May/Jun up-revisions add +119k) helps Fed take another step in the right direction on "substantial further progress". Sell-side economists invariably expect a pick-up in the inflation metric, but at a slower pace than prior reads, others anticipating continued slow down over the medium term as Covid Delta-variant weighs.
  • The 2-Yr yield is up 1bps at 0.2183%, 5-Yr is up 2.3bps at 0.7903%, 10-Yr is up 2bps at 1.317%, and 30-Yr is up 1.7bps at 1.9624%.
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