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ECB / BoE Terminal Pricing Drops In Sympathy With Fed

STIR

The US-led downward global rate repricing Thursday saw the ECB implied hike pullback outpace BoE counterparts.

  • Eurozone 2024-25 expiry futures led the charge, with implied rates falling 14-15bp. Terminal ECB rate pricing is now just 2.76% (Jul 2023), off 9bp on the day and the lowest since late October. As with the Fed, a 50bp ECB December hike was further cemented, with implied 83% probability, vs closer to 50% at the start of the week.
  • Meanwhile, Sonia futures rallied a similar magnitude to Euribor, with BoE terminal hike pricing for Aug/Sep 2023 slipping 8-9bp to 4.55%. Dec BoE 50bp hike pricing is 78%, the highest seen since the last meeting.
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