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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Wednesday's release of the ECB's monthly Consumer Expectations Survey for May (0900UK/1000CET) will again be eyed primarily for any movement in consumers' inflation expectations.
- While not nearly as important as actual incoming inflation data, ECB officials including Chief Economist Lane have cited the CES as a consideration in policy-setting, with May's meeting accounts noting some concern over the March uptick ("The upward movement in inflation expectations reflected in the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey also warranted ongoing monitoring.").
- That March uptick reversed in the survey covering April, with markets reacting in mildly dovish fashion: median 12-month ahead inflation expectations fell to 4.1% from 5.0% in March, and 3-years-ahead falling to 2.5% from 2.9%. That compares to a 0.4pp jump in March for 12-month expectations/0.5pp for 3-year.
- While the mean estimates remained relatively more elevated than the medians, the overall readings showed downward progress, and the measures of expectations were below the "perceived" prior inflation levels, suggesting that consumers see disinflation in the pipeline from very high rates.
Source: ECB, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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