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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
ECB rate cut pricing pulled back on Tuesday amid broader core EGB weakness, with BoE pricing relatively steady.
- Re market-based ECB cut pricing: 141bp in reductions are priced through the end of the year, with the first cut looking less likely for March (44% implied probability, basically unch on the day), though fully priced by April's meeting and more than two 25bp cuts fully priced through June. 2024 cuts have been pared back by 8bp Tuesday, and by 25bp since the close of 2023.
- OIS markets currently price 123bp of BoE cuts by year-end, including the first full 25bp cut priced by June (and around 72% probability of the first reduction in May). That's around 2bp fewer cuts implied in 2024 vs Monday's close, with the timing of the first cut little changed.
Source: MNI based on BBG OIS Pricing
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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