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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessMNI: EU To Talk With US, Boost Industry Protection-Officials
MNI POLITICAL RISK- China Retaliates As Tariffs Go Into Effect
ECB: de Guindos Pushes Back On Immediate Policy Action Post US Election Result
Much of the dovish repricing in ECB implied rates today has been on the negative growth implications of increased US tariffs. This afternoon, ECB Vice President de Guindos pushed back a little on the need for immediate policy action, stating that the ECB would need time to incorporate US trade policies under Trump into its projections.
- ECB-dated OIS currently price 29bps of easing through December, down from a dovish extreme of ~31.5bps this morning (and vs 28bps yesterday evening).
- More notable dovish moves have been seen through 2025, with 130bps of cuts priced through September next year (up from 116bps yesterday).
- ECB President Lagarde has previously highlighted staff analysis on the impact of trade fragmentation on global GDP. In a scenario where trade barriers are “only erected for strategic products”, global growth could fall almost 6%.
- However, “in a more severe scenario of full decoupling” the impact on global GDP would be as large as 9%.
- Although the growth implications of US trade policy changes are currently the main focus, Lagarde also flagged that “trade fragmentation could lead to renewed inflationary pressures globally”, a notion also echoed by de Guindos in today’s remarks.
Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
Dec-24 | 2.874 | -28.9 |
Jan-25 | 2.560 | -60.3 |
Mar-25 | 2.280 | -88.3 |
Apr-25 | 2.091 | -107.2 |
Jun-25 | 1.955 | -120.8 |
Jul-25 | 1.900 | -126.3 |
Sep-25 | 1.867 | -129.7 |
Oct-25 | 1.860 | -130.3 |
Source: MNI/Bloomberg. |
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.