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ECB Framework Review Supports Further BTP/Bund spread Tightening

BTP

The BTP/Bund spread is the trading at the tightest levels since late-2021, showing below 124bps.

  • The spread is ~7bps tighter week-to-date and ~40bps narrower year-to-date.
  • The outcome of the ECB’s operational framework review pointed to slightly easier refinancing conditions vs. most expectations, which has promoted peripheral tightening this afternoon.
  • Additional factors aiding spread compression through '24 include strong demand for peripheral debt in primary markets, carry and expectations for ECB easing later this year.
  • BTP futures are +12 at 119.68, still short of the first resistance at 120.05 (March 7 high).
  • The BTP curve has bull flattened on the day, with the 2s10s curve at its flattest since July 2023.
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